What to check before you trade
- Headline or core? Headline PCE covers everything; core PCE excludes food and energy. The Fed watches both, with core often treated as the better guide to the trend.
- Monthly or 12-month change? Contracts can settle on either. The 2% goal refers to the 12-month change in headline PCE.
- Rounding and strike wording. BEA reports percent changes to one decimal place. Check whether the strike value itself counts as yes.
- Revisions. PCE figures for earlier months are revised in later reports and in BEA's annual update. Most contracts settle on the first release for the reference month; read the terms.
How PCE differs from CPI
- Different source and timing. CPI comes from BLS earlier in the month; PCE comes from BEA near the end of the month, so much of it can be estimated from CPI and other data.
- Different weights and coverage. PCE covers spending made on behalf of households, such as employer-paid health insurance, and weights categories differently. Housing carries less weight in PCE than in CPI.
- Different adjustment. BEA's PCE price figures are seasonally adjusted, while CPI's headline 12-month change is reported before seasonal adjustment. Check which version your contract uses.
Because a lot of PCE is predictable from earlier data, PCE contract prices often move most on CPI day, not on PCE day.
Range contracts are a field
When PCE outcomes are listed as ranges, exactly one settles yes. Add up their prices: anything above 100¢ is the built-in markup.
2026–27 PCE release dates
| Release date (8:30 a.m. ET) | PCE data for |
|---|---|
| Wed Nov 25, 2026 | October 2026 |
| Wed Dec 23, 2026 | November 2026 |
| Thu Jan 28, 2027 | December 2026 |
| Thu Feb 25, 2027 | January 2027 |
| Wed Mar 31, 2027 | February 2027 |
| Thu Apr 29, 2027 | March 2027 |
| Thu May 27, 2027 | April 2027 |
| Fri Jun 25, 2027 | May 2027 |
| Thu Jul 29, 2027 | June 2027 |
| Wed Aug 25, 2027 | July 2027 |
| Thu Sep 30, 2027 | August 2027 |
| Thu Oct 28, 2027 | September 2027 |
| Wed Nov 24, 2027 | October 2027 |
| Wed Dec 22, 2027 | November 2027 |
Source: BEA release schedule. In 2027, BEA releases GDP and Personal Income and Outlays on the same morning. Dates can change; confirm before trading.
