The checklist
- Source. Which official source decides the outcome? A league's final box score, a government agency's release, or a named data provider?
- Exact measure. Which number, precisely? Headline or core CPI, final score or regulation score, the target range's upper or lower bound.
- Timing. When does it settle: at the event, at an official release, or after a confirmation period?
- Strike wording. "Above," "at or above," "more than": does the exact strike value count as yes?
- Rounding. To how many decimals is the source rounded, and does the contract use the rounded figure?
- Overtime and extra periods. Do they count? Game winners usually include overtime; some totals and player markets don't.
- Ties and pushes. Can the outcome tie? If so, how does a tie settle? Regular-season football can tie; playoff games can't.
- Voids and postponements. What happens if the event is canceled, postponed or shortened, or a player doesn't play?
- Revisions. If the source revises its number later, does the contract follow, or settle on the first release?
- Combo legs. For a combo, what happens if one leg is voided: is the combo repriced, settled at a set value, or canceled?
Why it matters for hedging
A hedge only works if it pays in exactly the cases your position doesn't. "Team A wins" and "Team B wins" are true opposites only when a tie is impossible and both use the same settlement source and timing. "Over 47.5" and "Under 47.5" are opposites only if both count overtime the same way. Check both contracts' rules before you size a hedge.
Why it matters for pricing
A contract that pays on "at or above 0.3%" is worth more than one that pays on "above 0.3%," because it also pays on exactly 0.3%. When a range of outcomes is listed, the rules tell you whether the ranges cover every possibility without gaps or overlaps, which you need before adding up their prices.
Where to find the rules
Exchanges publish rules on each contract's page or in a linked rulebook. Read them on the contract you're actually trading; similar contracts on the same exchange can use different terms.
