What the contract measures
The FOMC sets a range, such as 3.75% to 4.00%, and usually moves it in steps of 0.25 percentage point. Fed contracts typically settle on one of these:
- The decision: cut, hold or hike at a given meeting, sometimes split by size (a 0.25 or 0.50 point cut).
- The level: the upper or lower bound of the target range after the meeting.
- The path: the number of cuts or hikes by a date, or the range at year-end.
Read whether your contract settles on the statement at 2:00 p.m. or on a later date, and how an unscheduled meeting would count.
The outcomes form a field
For a single meeting, exactly one of cut, hold or hike happens. Their prices should add up to about 100¢, and anything above that is the market's built-in markup. If a 0.25 cut trades at 62¢, a hold at 36¢ and a hike at 4¢, the total is 102¢, about 2% over.
Multi-meeting contracts are combos
"Two cuts by June" depends on several meetings in a row. Like a title contract, it behaves like a combo across meetings: the chance of each step multiplies. See title contracts as combos.
Meetings with projections
Four meetings a year (March, June, September and December) include the Summary of Economic Projections, with each official's rate projections. Prices on later meetings often move most after those.
2027 FOMC meetings (tentative)
| Meeting | Decision day (statement 2:00 p.m. ET) |
|---|---|
| Dec 8–9, 2026 | Wed Dec 9, 2026 · projections |
| Jan 26–27 | Wed Jan 27, 2027 |
| Mar 16–17 | Wed Mar 17, 2027 · projections |
| Apr 27–28 | Wed Apr 28, 2027 |
| Jun 8–9 | Wed Jun 9, 2027 · projections |
| Jul 27–28 | Wed Jul 28, 2027 |
| Sep 14–15 | Wed Sep 15, 2027 · projections |
| Oct 26–27 | Wed Oct 27, 2027 |
| Dec 7–8 | Wed Dec 8, 2027 · projections |
Source: Federal Reserve, FOMC schedule, with 2027 dates tentative. Dates are tentative and can change.
