Three estimates for every quarter
- Advance estimate: about a month after the quarter ends. Most GDP contracts settle on this one.
- Second estimate: a month later, with more complete data.
- Third estimate: a month after that.
Each one can revise the number, sometimes by more than a percentage point. Annual updates revise it again. Read which estimate your contract uses.
It's an annual rate
The headline is real GDP growth at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. A reported 2.0% means the economy grew about 0.5% in the quarter, scaled up to a yearly pace. It is not growth over the past year, which BEA reports separately.
Strike wording and rounding
BEA reports growth to one decimal place. A contract for "above 2.0%" may not pay on exactly 2.0%; "at or above" does. Negative numbers count as contraction, and some contracts are built around "below 0%."
Recession contracts are not GDP contracts
Two quarters of negative GDP growth is a common rule of thumb, but it is not the official definition of a U.S. recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) dates recessions using a range of indicators, often months after the fact. A "recession in 2027" contract might settle on NBER's call, on two negative quarters, or on something else. The rules decide what you own.
Range contracts are a field
GDP outcomes listed as ranges should add up to about 100¢. Add them up before you buy one; the excess is the built-in markup.
2026–27 GDP release dates
| Release date (8:30 a.m. ET) | GDP estimate |
|---|---|
| Wed Nov 25, 2026 | Q3 2026 · second |
| Wed Dec 23, 2026 | Q3 2026 · third |
| Thu Jan 28, 2027 | Q4 2026 · advance |
| Thu Feb 25, 2027 | Q4 2026 · second |
| Wed Mar 31, 2027 | Q4 2026 · third |
| Thu Apr 29, 2027 | Q1 2027 · advance |
| Thu May 27, 2027 | Q1 2027 · second |
| Fri Jun 25, 2027 | Q1 2027 · third |
| Thu Jul 29, 2027 | Q2 2027 · advance |
| Wed Aug 25, 2027 | Q2 2027 · second |
| Thu Sep 30, 2027 | Q2 2027 · third |
| Thu Oct 28, 2027 | Q3 2027 · advance |
| Wed Nov 24, 2027 | Q3 2027 · second |
| Wed Dec 22, 2027 | Q3 2027 · third |
Source: BEA release schedule. In 2027, BEA releases GDP and Personal Income and Outlays on the same morning. Dates can change; confirm before trading.
