Game chance to series chance
| Chance of winning each game | Chance of winning the series |
|---|---|
| 50% | 50.0% |
| 55% | 60.8% |
| 60% | 71.0% |
| 65% | 80.0% |
| 70% | 87.4% |
Assumes the same chance every game and games independent of each other. Home court and injuries change the real per-game chance.
The series at every score
For a team that wins each game 60% of the time:
| Wins ↓ · Losses → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 71.0% | 54.4% | 33.7% | 13.0% |
| 1 | 82.1% | 68.3% | 47.5% | 21.6% |
| 2 | 91.3% | 82.1% | 64.8% | 36.0% |
| 3 | 97.4% | 93.6% | 84.0% | 60.0% |
Which games swing the most
At 2–2, a win takes the series to 84.0% and a loss to 36.0%, a 48-point swing. At 2–3, a win means 60.0% and a loss ends it: a 60-point swing. At 3–3, game 7 decides everything.
Hedging one game's swing
Holding 100 series contracts at 2–2, buying about 48 of the opponent's game 5 contracts evens out the two outcomes, because the opponent contract pays 100¢ exactly when the series value drops. At 42¢, both outcomes move the position by about −$0.96 before fees.
Game 7
At 3–3, the series contract and the game 7 contract are the same bet. Buying as many of the opponent's game 7 contracts as you hold locks the result in one trade, if your entry price plus the opponent's price is under 100¢.
