Calculators / Guides / Title market markup
Prediction markets · title markets

Add up the field: a title market's built-in markup

Exactly one team wins a title. If every title contract were priced fairly, all of their prices together would come to 100¢. The amount above 100¢ is the market's built-in markup.

The check

field markup = (sum of every remaining team's title price − 100) ÷ 100

TeamTitle price
Team A40¢
Team B30¢
Team C20¢
Team D15¢
Total105¢

These four add up to 105¢, about 5% over 100. Spread evenly, each price is about 5% above its fair share.

Big fields, bigger totals

Early in a tournament, dozens of teams have title contracts, many at a few cents each. Each carries a little markup, and together they can add up well past 100¢. Long-priced contracts tend to carry the most, and fees take a larger share of cheap prices too.

Hedging: No vs. the field

To hedge a position on Team A, you can buy No on Team A's title contract, or buy the other teams' title contracts. Here the other three cost 65¢ together, while a fair No on A would be about 60¢. Compare the two each time and use the cheaper one.

Adjusting a price for the markup

To estimate a team's fair price, divide its price by the field total: 40 ÷ 105 = 38.1¢. That's a rough adjustment, since markup is usually not spread evenly, but it's a better starting point than the raw price.

Price a title contract

Multiply the rounds in the combo calculator, then compare with the markup-adjusted price.

Open the combo calculator

Questions

Why do title market prices add up to more than 100¢?

Each contract carries a small markup for the market makers and sellers. Summed across the field, those markups push the total above 100¢.

How do I adjust a title price for the markup?

Divide the price by the field total. A 40¢ price in a field that adds up to 105¢ is about 38¢ after the adjustment.

Is buying No the same as buying every other team?

It pays in the same cases, but the cost can differ. Compare the No price with the sum of the other teams' prices and use the cheaper one.

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